Falcons vs. Chargers prediction: Los Angeles the pick

The Atlanta Falcons are a surprising 4-4 this season and an even better 6-2 against the spread. On Sunday, the NFC South leaders (yes, that’s true) are three-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers had won three straight before getting rolled at home by the Seahawks. Los Angeles had a bye week to lick its wounds. Though the Falcons have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season, I see this as a good spot to bet against them.

The biggest issue with Atlanta that it ranks 31st in total defense and 29th in scoring defense. The Bengals exploited that defense two weeks ago when they rolled up 35 points and 537 total yards. I see Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense having similar success on Sunday.

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Sometimes it takes oddsmakers time to adjust to a surprise team like the Falcons. For most of the season, bettors were getting value with Atlanta. The books now have caught up with Atlanta, however, and this is the first time I see value going the other way.

Betting on the NFL?

Chargers running back Austin Ekeler popped up on the injury report (again) this week, but it sounds as if he’s going to play on Sunday. The Chargers are still dealing with other key injuries on offense, but Herbert will get to feast on an Atlanta pass defense that ranks last in the NFL, allowing more than 300 yards per game.

I think this is a good time to back Los Angeles, laying a short number on the road.

The play: Chargers -3.

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